In a remarkable change in political direction over the last 60 days, the State of Missouri is now leaning several points in Obama’s favor. Pollster puts the race at about two points in Obama’s favor.  In October the majority of polls show Missouri leaning to Obama outside the statistical margin of error.

It is also worth noting that these polls do not include recently registered voters that most predictions suggest will add a few additional points in Obama’s favor.

In a remarkable show of support for Barack Obama and estimated 100,000 people attended a rally today under the Gateway Arch.  The sea of people that went on as far as the eye could see by some estimates could have exceeded 150,000.  Either way it is by far the largest rally to date for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the United States, only surpassed by the rally in Germany over the summer.

Obama under the arch in St. Louis, Missouri

NBC video highlighting rally in St. Louis and change of Missouri to an Obama state.

With the recent surge in polls (Gallup:  Obama=51%, McCain 42%) Obama has opened up his largest lead in the campaign in the national polls.  More importantly Obama has also pulled ahead in many of the battleground states giving him a formidable advantage in the campaign.

A few months back we predicted an Obama victory in November of about 5% in the popular vote and about 50 electoral votes.  With the success we had predicting the primaries we thought our estimate was sound… but we could not have predicted both the economic decline and the selection of “maverick” Palin is the VP pick.  It is hard to tell which one has hurt the McCain campaign most? 

The “economic reversal” has helped everyone understand how a moderate like Obama, who has worked in finance, has an education in economics and keeps a steady hand in crisis is much better suited to help navigate the mess created by two decades of debt financed consumer spending.

But I actually think Palin was the greater factor.  Not because she energized the Republican base, because I think she equally energized the progressive, moderate and liberal camps as well – but because she consistently provides so little evidence she has the depth of knowledge, leadership or experience to take the VP position.

By passing but not winning the VP debates last week with Sen. Biden, she only proved to the shrinking christian conservative base that she can talk for 45 minutes while providing no real substantive information.

Shifting to a more aggressive attack mode in an attempt to counter the surge in polls is only showing an ugly side of this freshman candidate and fueling angry crowds that will only continue to alienate moderate and independent voters.

So taking the new Palin – McCain strategy into consideration, the fact Palin is even on the ticket and the downturn in the economy we have to redefine “landslide” to now mean a 7% popular vote win and a whopping 100 electoral vote difference.

More data?

• Princeton Election Consortium
• Gallup Daily Tracking Poll for Last 6 Month

According to a poll of almost 500 uncommitted voters conducted by CBS and Knowledge Networks Sen. Joe Biden defeated Gov. Palin by a two to one margin.

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.

Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.

Both candidates improved their overall image tonight. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they now have a better impression of Biden. Five percent say they have a worse opinion of the Delaware senator, while 42 percent say they debate did not change their opinion.

Fifty-five percent say they now have a better opinion of Palin. Fourteen percent say they have a worse opinion, while 30 percent say their opinion hasn’t changed.

After the debate, 66 percent see Palin as knowledgeable about important issues – up from 43 percent before the debate. But Biden still has the advantage on this – 98 percent saw him as knowledgeable after the debate. That figure was 79 percent before the debate.

According to the CBS web site more detail on the poll and additional survey results will be posted at a later time.

The Obama campaign announced today that the Obama / Biden campaign raised $66,000,000 in August, shattering the record Obama set back in February of $55,000,000 by 20%.  More impressive was the 500,000 new voters that are new contributors to the campaign making it the most widely supported presidential run in history.

The video clip speaks for itself.

watch the entire show

According to a very interesting and well researched article by Seth Colter Walls the short answer is YES.  Polling does not sample recently registered voters and typically the reach out to equal numbers of democrats and republicans causing data to be skewed because there are about eleven million more registered democrats in the United States.

This week’s mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup’s tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology.

In a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?

Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September’s first Gallup tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including “leaners”) from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll’s two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.

Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that “when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account,” because newly registered voters aren’t in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. “You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants,” she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account.

Monday’s USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today’s July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that “it’s possible” that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, “it’s also possible that we have too many Democrats,” because “there’s always the chance of an over- or under-representation” in polls.

Read the entire article

One of the more interesting campaign lines today came from Hillary Clinton talking about McCain and Palin to  about 300 in Florida.

“To slightly amend my comments in Denver,” she said, “no way, no how, no McCain, no Palin.”

Clinton said the nation should be proud that the Republicans have a woman on the ticket, but argued that returning Republicans to the White House “is like asking the iceberg to save the Titanic.“

Barack Obama needs Clinton’s supporters if he hopes to win the November election. She’s promised to campaign for him despite their testy relationship during the Democratic primary. In Kissimmee, she began her comments with an appeal to her fans.

“I am here with a very simple message,” she said. “We must work as hard as we possibly can to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States.”

Video of Clinton campaigning in Florida below:

More on Clinton’s statements today from the Palm Beach Post.

Last night the Daily Show with Jon Stewart covered the Republican convention and took a look at some of the comments and commentators.  Might be the best Daily Show ever.  Highlights include, well you should watch it for yourself.

(watch entire video)

AP takes a look at some of the facts from Palin’s speech at the Republican convention.  The facts speak for themselves.

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her Republican supporters held back little Wednesday as they issued dismissive attacks on Barack Obama and flattering praise on her credentials to be vice president. In some cases, the reproach and the praise stretched the truth.

Some examples:

PALIN: “I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending … and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress ‘thanks but no thanks’ for that Bridge to Nowhere.”

THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a “bridge to nowhere.”

PALIN: “There is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it’s easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform _ not even in the state senate.”

THE FACTS: Compared to McCain and his two decades in the Senate, Obama does have a more meager record. But he has worked with Republicans to pass legislation that expanded efforts to intercept illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction and to help destroy conventional weapons stockpiles. The legislation became law last year. To demean that accomplishment would be to also demean the work of Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a respected foreign policy voice in the Senate. In Illinois, he was the leader on two big, contentious measures in Illinois: studying racial profiling by police and requiring recordings of interrogations in potential death penalty cases. He also successfully co-sponsored major ethics reform legislation.

(read entire article)