Economy or Palin, What Hurt McCain More?

With the recent surge in polls (Gallup:  Obama=51%, McCain 42%) Obama has opened up his largest lead in the campaign in the national polls.  More importantly Obama has also pulled ahead in many of the battleground states giving him a formidable advantage in the campaign.

A few months back we predicted an Obama victory in November of about 5% in the popular vote and about 50 electoral votes.  With the success we had predicting the primaries we thought our estimate was sound… but we could not have predicted both the economic decline and the selection of “maverick” Palin is the VP pick.  It is hard to tell which one has hurt the McCain campaign most? 

The “economic reversal” has helped everyone understand how a moderate like Obama, who has worked in finance, has an education in economics and keeps a steady hand in crisis is much better suited to help navigate the mess created by two decades of debt financed consumer spending.

But I actually think Palin was the greater factor.  Not because she energized the Republican base, because I think she equally energized the progressive, moderate and liberal camps as well – but because she consistently provides so little evidence she has the depth of knowledge, leadership or experience to take the VP position.

By passing but not winning the VP debates last week with Sen. Biden, she only proved to the shrinking christian conservative base that she can talk for 45 minutes while providing no real substantive information.

Shifting to a more aggressive attack mode in an attempt to counter the surge in polls is only showing an ugly side of this freshman candidate and fueling angry crowds that will only continue to alienate moderate and independent voters.

So taking the new Palin – McCain strategy into consideration, the fact Palin is even on the ticket and the downturn in the economy we have to redefine “landslide” to now mean a 7% popular vote win and a whopping 100 electoral vote difference.

More data?

• Princeton Election Consortium
• Gallup Daily Tracking Poll for Last 6 Month