Election Prediction, Obama Landslide

There are four reasons why Obama will win this election in a landslide – even though the recent polls show this is a very close race.  I am defining landslide as 5%+ in national election and 50+ electoral votes.  Have a steak dinner riding on this…

#1 High Democratic Turnout.  Almost every poll out there is based on registered voters and for those who have not been paying attention the democratic voter turnout in almost every state primary has been huge – in many cases up by double digits.  A significant percentage are new voters that will not show up on historic voter records so they will not show up on poll call lists either.

#2 Young People and African Americans. These two groups are historically two of the groups with the lowest voter turnout.  Both of these bases are turning out in primaries in record numbers and that momentum should carry through to the national election.

#3 McCain is His Own Worst Enemy. McCain is a horrible campaigner and comes across like a grumpy old man.  He has lived a silver spoon life – not that there is anything wrong with that – but he does not relate well to the average voter and appears out of touch.  Maybe this should have been called the grumpy uncle factor.

#4 The Economy.  The standard Republican lines about big government and taxes play well in times of prosperity but people look to the government in times of economic crisis.  This is by far McCain’s weakest area of policy and it is by far the most important issue.

One site I like in particular for poll data:  Princeton Election Consortium it is worth the visit if you are interested in election data and analysis.